* American Idol Top 3 Results

Elliott Yamin goes home setting up next week’s finale between Taylor Hicks and Katharine McPhee.

Taylor Hicks, Elliott Yamin, and Katharine McPhee are the final three standing on American Idol. Who will be the final two? I’m posting early tonight and will be adding blogger’s embellishments later.

Before the show, eight pundits on my chart (below) were picking Elliott to go home, two were picking Katharine to go home, and two had not (yet) cast a vote (Reality TV Magazine and Simon Cowell). Note the addition of Google Trends to the chart.

The majority of the pundits got it right, as Elliott Yamin ended his American Idol run tonight. But (we’re told) it was closer than most predicted. With 50 million votes cast, the votes were distributed as follows:

  1. First Place = 33.68% = 16,840,000
  2. Second Place = 33.26% = 16,630,000
  3. Third Place = 33.68% + 16,530,000

The 2000 presidential election was just about as close, and only about 100 million people voted in that election (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/U.S._presidential_election%2C_2000). That’s right: half as many votes were cast yesterday for American Idol’s contestants than were cast in the 2000 presidential election.

Elliott, as expected, handled the news with class. Watching the show, you got the idea that everybody would have preferred to send Katharine packing. But only 100,000 votes separated second and third place, only 210,000 separated first and second place (and those positions were not revealed).

The computer pundits are doing quite well. I added Google Trends to the chart this week. Google Trends, Zabasearch, and DialIdol.com all got it right.

The human pundits – some are doing better than others. Simon again failed to make a prediction. I am officially dropping VFTW from the chart (after this post), as they have proven, beyond a shadow of a doubt, they they are incapable of making even remotely close predictions. VFTW was fun last year but they’ve been searching for a purpose this year, and failing to find it. But I will say that clicking through on this VFTW post leads to some very funny reading.

Erik’s List of American Idol Pundits
Pundit Bottom 2-3 Accuracy Bottom One Accuracy
DialIdol.com 87% (13 for 15) 71% (5 for 7)
The Woes and the Prose of an American Idol Junkie 87% (13 for 15) 29% (2 for 7)
Erik J. Heels 80% (12 for 15) 43% (3 for 7)
Reality TV Magazine 80% (12 for 15) 43% (3 for 7)
Various and Sundry » American Idol 73% (11 for 15) 57% (4 for 7)
High Lord Dave’s Blog 67% (10 for 15) 57% (4 for 7)
USATODAY 67% (10 for 15) 57% (4 for 7)
American Idol Season 5 Blog 60% (9 for 15) 29% (2 for 7)
Flipping A Coin 50% 50%
Vote For The Worst 40% (6 for 15) 43% (3 for 7)
Simon Cowell NA 29% (2 for 7)
Zabasearch.com – Most Searched American Idol Contestants no historical data no historical data
Google Trends no historical data no historical data

Next week: the finale at the Kodak Theatre. Then what will we do for fun? Fortunately, as Google Trends shows us, there is life after American Idol: the Red Sox are up when American Idol is down (http://www.google.com/trends?q=American+Idol%2C+Red+Sox).

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