Kellie goes home, five remain. And why grizzly bears matter.
When I play Yahtzee with my kids, I always go for Yahtzee on every play. After all, that’s the name of the game! I get more Yahtzees, but also more two-of-a-kinds. Tonight was more of a two-of-a-kind night for me. Kellie went home, while I (and most other bloggers) picked Paris. Adding to the confusion, American Idol did not announce the bottom three. They announced the bottom two (Chris and Katharine), middle two (Taylor and Elliott), and bottom two (Paris and Kellie). In my defense, I did say that it was the most difficult night yet to judge. Even Simon didn’t make his pick out of the bottom two, so he’s 0 for 1 tonight.
I’m adjusting the scores a bit in my chart. If a pundit failed to make a guess, I’m calling that the same as striking out (0 for 3). This will even the scores across the board. Also, based on comments to yesterday’s post, I’ve added High Lord Dave to the mix. Plus USAToday. What the heck. Finally, since we don’t know the bottom three, everyone with the bottom two in their bottom three picks gets a 2 for 2 score.
|Pundit||Bottom 2-3 Results||Bottom One Results|
|DialIdol.com||91% (10 for 11)||50% (2 for 4)|
|Erik J. Heels||82% (9 for 11)||25% (1 for 4)|
|The Woes and the Prose of an American Idol Junkie||82% (9 for 11)||25% (1 for 4)|
|Reality TV Magazine||73% (8 for 11)||75% (3 for 4)|
|Various and Sundry Â» American Idol||64% (7 for 11)||50% (2 for 4)|
|USATODAY||64% (7 for 11)||50% (2 for 4)|
|High Lord Dave’s Blog||64% (7 for 11)||25% (1 for 4)|
|American Idol Season 5 Blog||55% (6 for 11)||25% (1 for 4)|
|Flipping A Coin||50%||50%|
|Vote For The Worst||18% (2 for 11)||25% (1 for 4)|
|Simon Cowell||NA||50% (2 for 4)|
|Zabasearch.com – Most Searched American Idol Contestants||no historical data||no historical data|
It’s worth noting that Simon admitted he was wrong about Katharine’s performance. Based on what I wrote yesterday, I’m guessing he’s reading my blog now. Thanks for the support, Simon!
It’s also worth noting that Zabasearch got it right this week. But I have no historical data for them to add to the chart.
Now, why grizzly bears are relevant to the outcome of American Idol. There is a saying that if you are running away from a grizzly bear, then you do not have to be the fastest runner. You only have to be faster than at least one other person (the person behind you). So it is with American Idol. You do not ever have to give a standout performance. If you sing above average every week, then you will win the American Idol competition. (Do the math. With two left, only the winner is above average.) Which leads me to some more observations about season 4 vs. season 5. Last year, I remember outstanding performances from Nadia Turner, Anthony Federov, Constantine Maroulis, Vonzelle Solomon, and Bo Bice. But I do not remember any outstanding performances from Carrie Underwood, the eventual season 5 winner. Carrie always sang above average and was never in the bottom three. That’s all it takes to win. The only remaining idol candidate with anything close to those same attributes is Taylor Hicks. Taylor Hicks has always sung above average and has never been in the bottom three. Taylor has arguably had more memorable performances in season 5 than Carrie had in season 4, but otherwise the fact pattern matches up. So could Taylor Hicks win American Idol?
Next week: Did they say what the theme is? Or have themes finally (and thankfully) been put to rest?